HealthDay News — An 11-factor index predicts 10- and 14-year mortality with excellent calibration and discrimination among community-dwelling U.S. adults aged ≥65 years, according to a study published online Feb. 21 in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society.

Mara A. Schonberg, MD, MPH, from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, and colleagues examined the performance of an index in predicting 10- and 14-year mortality for community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years from the 1997 to 2000 National Health Interview Surveys. Data were included for 16,063 and 8,027 respondents from the original development and validation cohorts. 

Risk scores were calculated based on the presence or absence of 11 factors that make up the index. Model calibration was examined by computing the 10- and 14-year mortality estimates with the Kaplan Meier method.

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The researchers found that 14-year mortality was 23% for participants with risk scores of 0 to 4, compared with 89% for those with risk score of 13+. In both cohorts, the C-index was 0.73 and 0.72 for predicting 10- and 14-year mortality, respectively. Overall, 18.4% and 60.2% of those aged 65 to 74 years and ≥75 years had more than 50% risk of mortality in 10 years.

“Information on long-term prognosis is needed to help clinicians and older adults make more informed person-centered medical decisions and to help older adults plan for the future,” the authors wrote.

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Schonberg MA, Li V, Marcantonio ER, et al. Predicting mortality up to 14 years among community-dwelling adults aged 65 and older [published online February 21, 2017]. J Am Geriatr Soc. doi:10.1111/jgs.14805